12/05
Uncommon Thinking
2
Data Analysis: Forecasting
ØBase
population
•By market
(US, EU, Japan, ROW)
•Genetic
predisposition toward disease
•Insurance
coverage
ØTarget
population
•Disease
prevalence
•Disease
severity
•Likelihood
of seeing an MD
ØProbability
of use
•Percent of
patients receiving Rx
•Likelihood
of use of OTC
ØLaunch
scenarios
ØMarket share
model
ØProduct
adoption model
ØRevenue and
margin projection